bought 200 shares of nflx at $12.24
Friday, July 26, 2002
http://www.digitalvideoediting.com/2002/07_jul/features/cw_macvspc2.htm
Benchmark Duel: Mac vs. PC, Round II
takes a big man to admit when he's wrong; props to deeje for publishing less flattering (and more accurate) comparison test results in his blog
Thursday, July 25, 2002
hope to hear from yodlee tomorrow on whether or not i'm moving on to the 2nd round of interviews
really hope so
dunno how much more time off i can handle
tomorrow (fri) will be a key day on the markets
wednesday's "rally" (short sellers covering) has definitely improved sentiment and slowed the free fall
a few choice stocks look a little sold
but overall, the market is still overvalued
this is problematic, given the outflows from mutual funds (less dollars/fewer investors) and the fact that a) over the last five years, hundreds of new companies have ipo'ed [absorbing dollars] and b) behemoths have split REPEATEDLY, creating more stock
http://news.com.com/2100-1040-946379.html?tag=fd_top
apple appearantly doesn't see the viral value of their customers email w/ the mac domain, hasn't figured out how to monetize it's use base, is now starting to charge, and is generally pissing off its customers. WHY?! get it right guys
Wednesday, July 24, 2002
http://money.cnn.com/2002/07/23/news/stockflight/index.htm
"To begin with there are the investors who have been yanking money out of stock mutual funds at a nearly unprecedented pace. There have been outflows eight of the last nine weeks, according to AMG Data Services. In the week ended July 17 investors pulled $10.7 billion from funds -- the second-worst week for mutual fund outflows on record. "
"More than half of the money that's flowed into mutual funds since 1982 (the beginning of the bull market in stocks) came beginning in 1997. With the benchmark S&P 500 at lows not seen since May 1997 that money is at best dead in the water and at worst deeply under it. " (emphasis added)
look at the chart again looking at 82 and 97:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l
Tuesday, July 23, 2002
clarification:
"J.P. Morgan slumped 18 percent and Citigroup fell nearly 16 percent. The two banks entered into Enron-style "prepay" financings with at least 10 unidentified companies, congressional investigators said on Tuesday. "
10 others... assume 1 is worldcom and 1 is quest (dunno, just guessin), both of which are already identified for issues -- that leaves 8 more biggies to go
ceo signoff date isn't until aug 14th
more volatility ahead...
wow, major nasdaq correction today as the outflow from mutual funds continues
big names, like msft (a req investment in seemingly all mutual funds), got hit hard
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=1234711
the trouble with telecomm
the article approximates that the banking industry has a remaining $500B exposure to telecomm
citigroup is being investigated for collusion w/ worldcom
what happens if the domino extends beyond techs->telecom, but leads into banking as well?
Monday, July 22, 2002
Sunday, July 21, 2002
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l
so i've had this theory since '92 when i put my first dollar into a 401k plan
- prior to 401ks (i.e., mass market consumer investors), the stock market contained dollars substantially from top 3% of the population, corporations, estates/trusts, etc
- the mass inflows of dollars from 10s of millions of newly added consumers automatically increases the price of stocks; 50% of americans invest as of right now
- adding 10s of Ms of new variables (individual investors) into the mix wildly increases volatility
- there is a point of equilibrium, when over the course of time of 401k, online brokerages, etc being available widely, when the % of growth of truly new investors (not offset by those dying, retiring, etc) should approach the general population growth %. at this point, new cash inflow will come largely only from either a) growth of percentage of savings from income or b) a higher percentage of savings moving into equities
looking at the chart above... is frightening. we look tremendously over extended. in my mind, the bubble starts around 1986, not 1997.
we've fallen from 12k to 10k to 8k on the dow as people begin the shift of dollars from equities to money market funds, bonds and real estate
the question is this... what REALLY is the appropriate mix of equitities for individuals? 50% 33% the near 100% it was when we were at 12k?
however individuals answer that will become the new equilibrium point, and the dow will, of course, move to match that.
i personally suspect we'll see 6k before we see 12k
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^IXIC&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l
nasdaq is pretty scary as well, though it's corrected more aggressively than the dow has (perhaps the 'flight to quality' from techs to djia components has something to do with that...)
so... i see the potential for another 25% decline in both of these indexes, perhaps worse on the dow side if there is a panic
of course, the problem with a panic is that it'll feed on itself; if capital is lost too quickly, consumers will be hesitant (or unable to) rotate dollars into other investment vehicles
i've been in 100% (tax free) bonds and money markets for almost a year (wish i had been shorting). hate to try timing the market, but i think this is a good time to be on the sidelines while things shake out...
Friday, July 19, 2002
http://register.microsoft.com/subscription/subscribeMe.asp?lcid=1033&id=155
Thank you for your interest in receiving future Microsoft executive e-mail. Periodically, Bill Gates, Steve Ballmer and other Microsoft executives will be communicating with customers, partners and computer users about important issues involving technology, public policy and the high-technology industry. If you would like to receive these e-mails, please complete the short form below.
http://www.business2.com/articles/web/0,1653,42250,FF.html
"So remember, it's the dilution, not the bookkeeping, that really matters."
investors beware
this has been reported about msft on and off for almost two decades
wonder how much $ msft lobbists are spending right now
http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/news/local/3686552.htm
"Today, almost anyone can edit a TV-quality film in his or her own living room. For the price of a two-week holiday in Hawaii, amateurs can buy a laptop, a handheld camera and software such as Apple Computer's Final Cut Pro. Five years ago, they would have had to mortgage their homes.
In the 10 weeks since it has opened, the space known as DV Dojo has attracted film students, video buffs and storytellers who squeeze into a narrow, brick and blond wood room for a weekend class, a five-week course or a film screening -- the latest work by MTV animator Candy Kugel, say, or Michael Apted's ``Married in America.''"
Wednesday, July 17, 2002
does apple have a true msft-office competitor up its sleeve?
if not, and even with a move to intel processors (as steve hinted at today), can they ever usurp windows' dominance?
http://electronics.cnet.com/electronics/0-6342420-1304-20155133.html?tag=news-rr
Apple finally releases iPod for Windows plus a new iPod w/ 20GB ($499) -- time to get a job
Monday, July 15, 2002
http://news.com.com/2100-1040-943859.html?tag=fd_top
"friends" by contract for the last 5 years, APPL & MSFT may now be headed for splitsville
Sunday, July 14, 2002
From Deeje's BLOG:
"USATODAY.com - The ultimate smackdown
http://www.usatoday.com/life/cyber/ccarch/2002/07/12/steinberg.htm
when someone tells you a Windows box is always faster than the Mac, point them to this article and tell them it isn't necessarily so."
Observations:
- As I've been saying for years that the PowerPC chip consortium has a marketing challenge around processor speed (MHz); shame on them for allowing that to continue to be the consumer's most understood means of gauging processor performance
- How much memory was in each of the computers tested?
- Disk subsystem speed?
- How much did each box cost?
- What else was included for the purchase price (DVD-ROM, CD-R, etc)
- Why was a DUAL PROCESSOR MAC compared to a SINGLE PROCESSOR WINTEL?
A quick look on the Apple site at -- guessing they selected the $2999 model:
http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APPLE/WebObjects/AppleStore.woa/222/wo/EycUb1BoYNnoVzWMep/0.3.0.3.30.37.1.0.1.3.1.3.1.1.0?96,57
A quick look on Sony's site shows a /significantly upgraded/ version of the model tested at $2499:
http://www.sonystyle.com/home/item.jsp?hierc=9683x5881x8591&catid=8591&itemid=40386#40386_01_01_RC_Customize
I sure as hell wouldn't point anyone w/ a brain to this article for "proof" of anything, aside from the author's lack of ability to conduct a fair and accurate test.
Apple's showing great signs of life, but they still can't bring the 'hammer' (1984) down. Keep pluggin boys!
Friday, July 12, 2002
ballot measure in NV; would allow individuals to posses up to 3 ounces of marijuana w/o incarceration
Thursday, July 11, 2002
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/07/07/magazine/07FAT.html?ei=1&en=e38c51e74066448e&ex=1027041397&pagewanted=all&position=top
carbs (esp. processed), trans-fats (hydrogenated-anything), artifical sweetners (and other excitotoxnis) are turning america into the land of obese, diabetic, cancer-ridden, poor cardio having tools
change or die
Wednesday, July 10, 2002
http://cancerweb.ncl.ac.uk/cgi-bin/omd?query=excitotoxin&action=Search+OMD
excitoxin defined
http://www.holisticmed.com/aspartame/suffer.faq
aspartame = an excitotoxin; splendra likely is as well
http://www.holisticmed.com/aspartame/history.faq
the full cover-up
http://www.holisticmed.com/sweet/#guide
http://www.stevia.net/
stevia appears to be a great answer... but of course, herb cultivation isn't as big a business as is artificial chemical enhancers and drugs
stevia can be legally sold as an herbal remedy, but NOT as sweetner; no mention of its sweet properties is allowed in MARKETING pieces
the fda isn't doing its job, and people are needlessly suffering because of it
monsanto is evil
Monday, July 08, 2002
on that oinking topic...
now hovering around 170-172 & still shedding the fat. guessing i'm going to need to take it down to 165-167 to get back into tight 32 (34s are hangin off me now). i'm a little bummed by that, as the last time i was down this low and in 32s (easy) was back in my aldus days. i was quite a bit stronger/more built then, and was closer to 170. packing on 5 pounds of lean beef will probably take the majority of the rest of the year -- lack of free weights + i'm definitely not gaining muscle as fast as i was 8 yrs ago. (i'm also not a believer in "men" weighing 160-anything, lol. aren't we supposed to be the bigger of the species?!
after reading radiant health and thinking through some of the stuff that scott & i talked about, i'm liberating my fat intake a bit (which opens up a ton of food) but sticking w/ the mod/low-carb approach that's been good to me for the last 20lbs.
i'm also going to /try/ to workout earlier in the day, before any significant carb intake and see how my workout energy is. details in a week or two...
ah, back from sd and la...
san diego was awesome. partied w/ kim and her crew down in MB for the 4th. up and down the strand, but mostly either end of Jamaica (beach by day, bay by night). caught 3 full fireworks shows sitting bayside. beautiful.
i also oinked out with her. gyro, fatboy's pizza and a roberto's carne asada taco. fucking YUM!
missed desi, which is a bummer. hopefully i'll catch her & her friends at streetscene.
rest of sd was spent hangin w/ the folks, including my step-dad's 50th bday on sat.
hung out w/ jill on sunday up in la.
